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Dresden 2–2 Bochum

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Bacher, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win37%2.64
Dresden win36%2.72
Draw28%3.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Lukas Hinterseer · Bochum
14'⚽Miloš Pantović · Bochum
33'⚽Barış Atik · Dresden
44'🟨Patrick Fabian · Bochum
55'🟨Anthony Losilla · Bochum
59'⚽Jannis Nikolaou · Dresden
62'🟨Patrick Ebert · Dresden
90'🟨Lukas Hinterseer · Bochum

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
17Shots10
8On target5
8Corners5
14Fouls18
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDresdenBochum
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
box share (last 5)0.630.74
cards avg (last 5)2.801.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRudolf-Harbig Stadion
coach days30.00395.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.602.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.206.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.762.42
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.16
dominance (last 5)0.480.47
elo1439.821475.80
elo momentum (last 5)-38.14-50.50
eye test v1-0.25-0.22
eye trend v1-0.40-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)61.4061.40
form points (last 5)1.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.410.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.690.68
league points32.0036.00
league rank12.009.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.009.00
matches since win5.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2072.20
possession avg (last 5)48.0055.80
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.320.32
season ppg1.281.44
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.4013.40
skill v1-0.30-0.09
sot against avg (last 5)4.806.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.00
squad age24.4127.18
state index-0.80-0.89
sterile dominance v1-0.500.14
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.250.20
threat rate (last 5)0.280.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80