← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Thorben Siewer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 41% | 2.34 |
| Regensburg win | 30% | 3.19 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.45 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Oliver Hein · Regensburg |
| 44' | ⚽ | Marco Grüttner · Regensburg |
| 50' | ⚽ | Marc Schnatterer · Heidenheim |
| 58' | ⚽ | Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg |
| 77' | 🟨 | Andreas Geipl · Regensburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Timo Beermann · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| coach days | 4200.00 | 609.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1545.41 | 1481.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.90 | -3.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 42.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 61.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | -1.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.93 | 27.20 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | -1.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |