← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 37% | 2.62 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 34% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.36 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 243.00 | 243.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.77 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1620.13 | 1581.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.77 | 6.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.68 |
| league points | 42.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.96 | 27.49 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |