← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Wed, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 63% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.27 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 14% | 6.78 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 32' | 🟨 | Dominick Drexler · 1. FC Köln |
| 35' | ⚽ | Marco Höger · 1. FC Köln |
| 47' | 🟨 | Louis Samson · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 78' | 🟨 | Rafael Czichos · 1. FC Köln |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| coach days | 636.00 | 241.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1431.96 | 1605.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.45 | -23.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.04 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 2.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| league points | 30.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 7.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 26.81 | 26.22 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |