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Magdeburg 1–1 SC Paderborn 07

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alexander Sather, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win37%2.63
Magdeburg win36%2.68
Draw27%3.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Rico Preißinger · Magdeburg
59'🟨Timo Perthel · Magdeburg
62'🟨Sebastian Schonlau · SC Paderborn 07
70'⚽Uwe Hünemeier · SC Paderborn 07
75'🟨Klaus Gjasula · SC Paderborn 07
90'🟨Jan Kirchhoff · Magdeburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots13
2On target3
3Corners5
8Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMagdeburgSC Paderborn 07
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.610.51
cards avg (last 5)2.402.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMDCC-Arena
coach days1699.00694.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.19
corner diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.621.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.11
dominance (last 5)0.510.57
elo1461.171510.08
elo momentum (last 5)33.8342.94
eye test v10.280.85
eye trend v10.010.18
first sub minute (last 10)64.1062.80
form points (last 5)10.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.202.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.403.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.922.18
h2 goals (last 10)0.402.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
keeper form v10.830.71
league points22.0037.00
league rank15.007.00
matches since blank5.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.4073.40
possession avg (last 5)46.2053.80
rest days7.009.00
scorer concentration0.350.18
season ppg0.961.61
shot diff avg (last 5)1.004.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.8016.60
skill v1-1.03-0.10
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.906.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.007.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.406.40
squad age27.3025.29
state index0.110.68
sterile dominance v1-0.68-0.59
threat rate (last 10)0.280.34
threat rate (last 3)0.260.39
threat rate (last 5)0.260.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20