← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 44% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.44 |
| Regensburg win | 27% | 3.53 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | David Bates · Hamburger SV |
| 21' | 🟨 | Oliver Hein · Regensburg |
| 23' | 🟨 | Orel Mangala · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marco Grüttner · Regensburg |
| 69' | 🟨 | Orel Mangala · Hamburger SV |
| 69' | 🟥 | Orel Mangala · Hamburger SV |
| 73' | 🟨 | Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV |
| 74' | ⚽ | Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lewis Holtby · Hamburger SV |
| 81' | ⚽ | Marco Grüttner · Regensburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Rick Van Drongelen · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟥 | Vasilije Janjičić · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Continental Arena |
| coach days | 603.00 | 360.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1469.65 | 1606.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.94 | -25.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 33.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.23 | 1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.55 | 23.31 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.82 | 1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |