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1. FC Köln 3–1 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Köln win68%1.42
Draw21%4.54
SV Sandhausen win11%8.51

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Andrew Wooten · SV Sandhausen
8'🟨Tim Kister · SV Sandhausen
44'🟨Dennis Diekmeier · SV Sandhausen
50'⚽Dominick Drexler · 1. FC Köln
52'🟨Vincent Koziello · 1. FC Köln
83'⚽Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln
88'🟨Emanuel Taffertshofer · SV Sandhausen
90'🟨Philipp Förster · SV Sandhausen
90'⚽Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
22Shots6
8On target2
8Corners4
12Fouls13
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric1. FC KölnSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.680.50
cards avg (last 5)3.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRheinEnergieStadion
coach days237.00145.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.11
corner diff avg (last 5)2.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.003.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.652.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.09
dominance (last 5)0.600.49
elo1599.291424.14
elo momentum (last 5)-22.657.13
eye test v11.31-1.12
eye trend v1-0.39-0.32
first sub minute (last 10)66.0058.80
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)2.280.94
h2 goals (last 10)2.000.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
keeper form v10.710.62
league points39.0018.00
league rank6.0017.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0062.80
possession avg (last 5)60.4046.60
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.400.43
season ppg1.770.78
shot diff avg (last 5)5.60-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)17.4010.00
skill v10.92-1.69
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)7.203.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)7.402.60
squad age26.8927.09
state index0.35-0.41
sterile dominance v10.37-0.59
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.260.23
threat rate (last 5)0.280.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.20