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Holstein Kiel 2–2 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Schlager, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Holstein Kiel win59%1.63
Draw23%4.12
Greuther Furth win17%5.53

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

50'⚽ (pen)Julian Green · Greuther Furth
62'🟨Paul Jaeckel · Greuther Furth
76'⚽Atakan Karazor · Holstein Kiel
84'⚽Marco Caligiuri · Greuther Furth
90'🟨Atakan Karazor · Holstein Kiel
90'🟨Maximilian Wittek · Greuther Furth
90'⚽Hauke Wahl · Holstein Kiel

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots8
5On target5
14Corners10
16Fouls15
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHolstein KielGreuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.570.63
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHolstein-Stadion
2.60
coach days231.0016.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.01
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.405.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.403.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.923.30
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.11
dominance (last 5)0.450.37
elo1613.691431.90
elo momentum (last 5)2.39-11.49
eye test v1-0.26-1.02
eye trend v1-0.300.24
first sub minute (last 10)66.1045.30
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.180.97
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.05
keeper form v10.770.59
league points38.0033.00
league rank6.0010.00
matches since blank15.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2068.60
possession avg (last 5)58.4045.60
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.260.38
season ppg1.731.43
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.009.80
skill v10.91-1.15
sot against avg (last 5)6.405.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.80
squad age26.1025.67
state index0.34-0.80
sterile dominance v11.00-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.200.25
threat rate (last 3)0.170.23
threat rate (last 5)0.190.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20