← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benedikt Kempkes, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 37% | 2.65 |
| Regensburg win | 36% | 2.68 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.58 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | 🟨 | Sebastian Stolze · Regensburg |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marco Grüttner · Regensburg |
| 80' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| coach days | 16.00 | 596.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig Stadion |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| -1.00 |
| 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1453.98 | 1468.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.91 | -7.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| league points | 31.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 58.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | -2.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.46 | 27.06 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | -1.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |