← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Florian Badstubner, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 56% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.67 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 18% | 5.47 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| 4.20 |
| coach days | 442.00 | 625.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.84 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1526.39 | 1423.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.12 | 16.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| league points | 40.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.66 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.28 | 26.01 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |