← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 38% | 2.57 |
| Heidenheim win | 33% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.37 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Niklas Dorsch · Heidenheim |
| 30' | ⚽ | Berkay Özcan · Hamburger SV |
| 38' | 🟨 | Orel Mangala · Hamburger SV |
| 54' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Heidenheim |
| 63' | 🟨 | Hwang Hee-chan · Hamburger SV |
| 70' | ⚽ | Pierre-Michel Lasogga · Hamburger SV |
| 84' | 🟨 | Berkay Özcan · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4186.00 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| 352.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 1.96 |
| elo | 1507.43 | 1526.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.49 | -11.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.85 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 37.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 4.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 2.05 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | 1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |