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Heidenheim 2–2 Hamburger SV

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV win38%2.57
Heidenheim win33%2.90
Draw29%3.37

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Niklas Dorsch · Heidenheim
30'⚽Berkay Özcan · Hamburger SV
38'🟨Orel Mangala · Hamburger SV
54'⚽Robert Glatzel · Heidenheim
63'🟨Hwang Hee-chan · Hamburger SV
70'⚽Pierre-Michel Lasogga · Hamburger SV
84'🟨Berkay Özcan · Hamburger SV

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots15
7On target4
8Corners4
16Fouls15
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHeidenheimHamburger SV
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.38
box share (last 5)0.630.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days4186.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVoith-Arena
352.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.251.96
elo1507.431526.98
elo momentum (last 5)24.49-11.56
eye test v10.020.31
eye trend v1-0.10-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)51.6066.00
form points (last 5)11.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.85
keeper form v10.720.68
league points37.0043.00
league rank5.001.00
matches since blank17.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0083.60
possession avg (last 5)41.2062.00
rest days5.984.69
scorer concentration0.290.30
season ppg1.762.05
skill v1-0.881.51
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.80
state index0.35-0.03
sterile dominance v1-1.011.31
threat rate (last 10)0.300.25
threat rate (last 3)0.280.18
threat rate (last 5)0.300.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.80