← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Mon, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 61% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.17 |
| Dresden win | 16% | 6.07 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | 🟨 | Lewis Holtby · Hamburger SV |
| 77' | 🟨 | Gideon Jung · Hamburger SV |
| 84' | ⚽ | Lewis Holtby · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| coach days | 347.00 | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| -0.40 |
| -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1601.93 | 1458.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.51 | -2.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.90 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| league points | 43.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.09 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 22.84 | 24.88 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |