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Magdeburg 1–1 Holstein Kiel

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Holstein Kiel win37%2.63
Magdeburg win35%2.75
Draw28%3.48

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Janni Serra · Holstein Kiel
39'🟨László Bénes · Holstein Kiel
42'⚽Philip Türpitz · Magdeburg
45'🟨Dennis Erdmann · Magdeburg
45'🟨Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel
63'🟨Atakan Karazor · Holstein Kiel
82'🟨Nico Hammann · Magdeburg
85'🟨Philip Türpitz · Magdeburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots11
9On target5
11Corners8
18Fouls13
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMagdeburgHolstein Kiel
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.35
box share (last 5)0.640.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1685.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMDCC-Arena
224.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.512.69
elo1423.231566.53
elo momentum (last 5)1.5720.01
eye test v1-0.42-0.26
eye trend v10.18-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)64.1068.40
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.06
keeper form v1—0.77
league points17.0034.00
league rank15.005.00
matches since blank3.0013.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.0080.20
possession avg (last 5)46.0056.60
rest days8.797.00
scorer concentration0.400.24
season ppg0.851.70
skill v1-1.190.80
sot against avg (last 5)4.406.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.60
state index-0.440.64
sterile dominance v1-0.530.91
threat rate (last 10)0.240.20
threat rate (last 3)0.210.20
threat rate (last 5)0.230.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.002.20