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Bochum 1–2 SC Paderborn 07

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kempter, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win39%2.51
SC Paderborn 07 win35%2.77
Draw26%3.68

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Ben Zolinski · SC Paderborn 07
25'🟨Lukas Hinterseer · Bochum
37'🟨Mohamed Dräger · SC Paderborn 07
45'⚽Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07
48'🟨Anthony Losilla · Bochum
79'⚽Lukas Hinterseer · Bochum
83'🟨Leopold Zingerle · SC Paderborn 07
89'🟨Bernard Tekpetey · SC Paderborn 07
90'🟨Robbie Kruse · Bochum
90'🟨Klaus Gjasula · SC Paderborn 07

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
15Shots20
4On target7
5Corners4
19Fouls15
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumSC Paderborn 07
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.690.58
cards avg (last 5)1.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
coach days373.00679.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.16
corner diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.332.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.09
dominance (last 5)0.510.57
elo1511.051486.19
elo momentum (last 5)-5.5329.57
eye test v10.460.66
eye trend v10.09-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)66.4064.10
form points (last 5)9.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.402.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.403.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.062.55
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.660.66
league points36.0031.00
league rank6.0010.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0077.40
possession avg (last 5)56.0055.80
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.320.20
season ppg1.641.48
shot diff avg (last 5)1.004.20
shots for avg (last 5)17.0015.00
skill v10.110.45
sot against avg (last 5)6.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.706.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.677.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.206.00
squad age29.3625.47
state index-0.020.47
sterile dominance v1-0.250.03
threat rate (last 10)0.260.33
threat rate (last 3)0.270.27
threat rate (last 5)0.300.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60