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1. FC Köln 4–1 FC St. Pauli 1910

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Köln win62%1.55
Draw22%4.33
FC St. Pauli 1910 win15%6.24

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'⚽Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln
38'⚽Alexander Meier · FC St. Pauli 1910
47'🟨Florian-Horst Carstens · FC St. Pauli 1910
53'⚽Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln
54'🟨Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln
58'⚽Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln
85'⚽Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
19Shots7
12On target3
5Corners5
16Fouls10
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric1. FC KölnFC St. Pauli 1910
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.45
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.57
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.680.72
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRheinEnergieStadion
2.20
coach days222.00434.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.26
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.406.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.803.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.813.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.07
dominance (last 5)0.600.42
elo1599.141538.03
elo momentum (last 5)-0.1237.77
eye test v11.390.02
eye trend v1-0.19-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)62.4056.20
form points (last 5)9.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.402.60
goals volatility (last 10)2.371.23
h2 goals (last 10)1.701.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
keeper form v10.720.76
league points36.0040.00
league rank6.002.00
matches since blank0.009.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8066.00
possession avg (last 5)59.6040.60
rest days8.004.00
scorer concentration0.430.19
season ppg1.801.90
shot diff avg (last 5)5.60-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)17.4011.60
skill v11.06-1.76
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)6.905.00
sot for avg (last 3)7.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)7.404.60
squad age26.2629.19
state index0.610.58
sterile dominance v10.27-1.29
threat rate (last 10)0.280.28
threat rate (last 3)0.290.22
threat rate (last 5)0.300.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.00