← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Mon, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 35% | 2.78 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 34% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.09 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 430.00 | 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1528.44 | 1574.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.58 | 10.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.80 |
| league points | 37.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.53 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 27.30 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.11 | -1.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |