← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Arne Aarnink, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 40% | 2.44 |
| Regensburg win | 34% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Kingsley Schindler · Holstein Kiel |
| 45' | 🟨 | Andreas Geipl · Regensburg |
| 60' | 🟨 | Marcel Correia · Regensburg |
| 65' | 🟨 | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jann George · Regensburg |
| 82' | ⚽ | Stefan Thesker · Holstein Kiel |
| 83' | 🟨 | Julian-Maurice Derstroff · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 24 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 217.00 | 582.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1608.82 | 1497.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.13 | 9.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| league points | 34.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 60.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.18 | -2.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.80 | 26.88 |
| state index | 0.69 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.00 | -1.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |