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SV Sandhausen 3–0 Bochum

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Schroder, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win34%2.82
SV Sandhausen win34%2.82
Draw31%3.12

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Philipp Förster · SV Sandhausen
45'🟨Rúrik Gíslason · SV Sandhausen
49'🟨Tom Weilandt · Bochum
54'⚽Tim Knipping · SV Sandhausen
68'🟨Patrick Fabian · Bochum
75'⚽Andrew Wooten · SV Sandhausen
84'🟨Robert Tesche · Bochum
84'🟥Silvère Ganvoula · Bochum
90'⚽Fabian Schleusener · SV Sandhausen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots15
4On target4
4Corners5
18Fouls16
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenBochum
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.30
box share (last 5)0.600.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days125.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHardtwaldstadion
367.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.222.63
elo1378.351478.43
elo momentum (last 5)-12.02-8.00
eye test v1-0.320.16
eye trend v10.060.33
first sub minute (last 10)60.7067.40
form points (last 5)3.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.17
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
keeper form v10.630.72
league points13.0030.00
league rank18.008.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win9.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.2074.80
possession avg (last 5)49.4056.60
rest days3.714.79
scorer concentration0.410.32
season ppg0.681.58
skill v1-0.830.23
sot against avg (last 5)4.406.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.60
state index-0.93-0.20
sterile dominance v1-0.080.02
threat rate (last 10)0.280.25
threat rate (last 3)0.210.30
threat rate (last 5)0.200.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20