← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alexander Sather, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 65% | 1.47 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.84 |
| Greuther Furth win | 15% | 6.58 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Sascha Burchert · Greuther Furth |
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Philipp Klement · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 19' | ⚽ | Bernard Tekpetey · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 28' | ⚽ | Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Daniel Keita-Ruel · Greuther Furth |
| 47' | 🟨 | Mohamed Dräger · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 62' | 🟨 | Julian Green · Greuther Furth |
| 65' | ⚽ | Babacar Guèye · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 69' | ⚽ | Kai Pröger · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 77' | ⚽ | Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Fabian Reese · Greuther Furth |
| 85' | 🟨 | Christian Strohdiek · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Benteler-Arena |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 672.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1470.86 | 1431.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.86 | -59.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -1.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 45.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| league points | 28.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.40 |
| squad age | 24.94 | 26.26 |
| state index | 0.24 | -1.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |