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SC Paderborn 07 6–0 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alexander Sather, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win65%1.47
Draw20%4.84
Greuther Furth win15%6.58

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Sascha Burchert · Greuther Furth
11'⚽ (pen)Philipp Klement · SC Paderborn 07
19'⚽Bernard Tekpetey · SC Paderborn 07
28'⚽Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07
36'🟨Daniel Keita-Ruel · Greuther Furth
47'🟨Mohamed Dräger · SC Paderborn 07
62'🟨Julian Green · Greuther Furth
65'⚽Babacar Guèye · SC Paderborn 07
69'⚽Kai Pröger · SC Paderborn 07
77'⚽Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07
84'🟨Fabian Reese · Greuther Furth
85'🟨Christian Strohdiek · SC Paderborn 07

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
18Shots9
11On target3
7Corners5
15Fouls14
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSC Paderborn 07Greuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.580.57
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBenteler-Arena
3.20
coach days672.001.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.606.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.793.53
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.15
dominance (last 5)0.550.36
elo1470.861431.46
elo momentum (last 5)11.86-59.36
eye test v10.26-1.48
eye trend v1-0.17-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)64.4045.80
form points (last 5)7.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-2.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.00
goals volatility (last 10)2.261.32
h2 goals (last 10)1.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.05
keeper form v10.650.63
league points28.0027.00
league rank10.0011.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4071.60
possession avg (last 5)56.4046.00
rest days3.004.00
scorer concentration0.230.35
season ppg1.401.35
shot diff avg (last 5)2.80-5.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.009.20
skill v10.49-0.81
sot against avg (last 5)5.006.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.602.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.671.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.001.40
squad age24.9426.26
state index0.24-1.45
sterile dominance v10.25-0.04
threat rate (last 10)0.310.24
threat rate (last 3)0.280.15
threat rate (last 5)0.260.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20