← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Thu, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 36% | 2.73 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 35% | 2.77 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 11 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | An der Alten Försterei |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 214.00 | 214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 4.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1559.52 | 1613.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.34 | 31.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 1.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 2.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| league points | 32.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 27.68 | 25.97 |
| state index | 0.35 | 1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.22 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |