← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Wed, Jan 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Reichel, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 38% | 2.52 |
| Regensburg win | 36% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | ⚽ | Maximilian Thalhammer · Regensburg |
| 73' | ⚽ | Sebastian Stolze · Regensburg |
| 78' | 🟨 | Hamadi Al Ghaddioui · Regensburg |
| 80' | 🟨 | Marcel Correia · Regensburg |
| 83' | 🟨 | Sebastian Vasiliadis · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 22 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Continental Arena |
| coach days | 578.00 | 669.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1485.45 | 1483.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.49 | 50.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 65.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 2.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| league points | 29.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.51 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.18 | 25.70 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.33 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |