⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Magdeburg 1–0 Erzgebirge AUE

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Tue, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Magdeburg win46%2.09
Draw29%3.40
Erzgebirge AUE win25%3.87

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Timo Perthel · Magdeburg
40'🟨Philipp Riese · Erzgebirge AUE
44'⚽Felix Lohkemper · Magdeburg
59'🟨Dominik Wydra · Erzgebirge AUE
72'🟨Marius Bülter · Magdeburg
80'🟨Emmanuel Iyoha · Erzgebirge AUE
88'🟨Charles Elie Laprevotte · Magdeburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots9
5On target1
4Corners3
13Fouls15
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMagdeburgErzgebirge AUE
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.53
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.47
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.05
box share (last 5)0.640.55
cards avg (last 5)1.403.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMDCC-Arena
coach days1673.00607.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.10
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.21
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.608.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.406.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.783.14
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.05
dominance (last 5)0.530.38
elo1417.451455.41
elo momentum (last 5)-20.0744.08
eye test v10.050.30
eye trend v1-0.160.51
first sub minute (last 10)62.9053.20
form points (last 5)2.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.401.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.00
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.20
keeper form v10.540.80
league points12.0025.00
league rank19.0012.00
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win10.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.4069.20
possession avg (last 5)47.4042.00
rest days30.0030.00
scorer concentration0.440.39
season ppg0.631.32
shot diff avg (last 5)1.00-6.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.8012.00
skill v1-1.26-1.33
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.337.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.005.40
squad age26.0926.27
state index-1.010.31
sterile dominance v1-0.93-1.03
threat rate (last 10)0.270.28
threat rate (last 3)0.260.31
threat rate (last 5)0.280.28
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.80