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FC St. Pauli 1910 4–1 Magdeburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Schlager, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win49%1.98
Draw28%3.41
Magdeburg win23%4.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Bernd Nehrig · FC St. Pauli 1910
29'🟨Dennis Erdmann · Magdeburg
32'🟨Henk Veerman · FC St. Pauli 1910
35'⚽Michel Niemeyer · Magdeburg
44'🟨Bernd Nehrig · FC St. Pauli 1910
58'🟨Alexander Brunst · Magdeburg
59'⚽ (pen)Marvin Knoll · FC St. Pauli 1910
63'⚽Dimitrios Diamantakos · FC St. Pauli 1910
90'🟨Dimitrios Diamantakos · FC St. Pauli 1910
90'🟨Marcel Costly · Magdeburg
90'⚽Dimitrios Diamantakos · FC St. Pauli 1910

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
7Shots16
6On target7
2Corners6
10Fouls12
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910Magdeburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.33
box share (last 5)0.730.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days386.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMillerntor-Stadion
1635.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.081.91
elo1488.991414.72
elo momentum (last 5)27.57-25.34
eye test v10.17-0.25
eye trend v1-0.10-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)59.6062.90
form points (last 5)9.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.88
keeper form v10.800.59
league points31.0011.00
league rank3.0017.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.6063.60
possession avg (last 5)44.6045.00
rest days7.004.69
scorer concentration0.240.47
season ppg1.820.65
skill v1-0.90-1.71
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.004.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.40
state index0.28-1.21
sterile dominance v1-0.99-1.23
threat rate (last 10)0.310.26
threat rate (last 3)0.310.29
threat rate (last 5)0.300.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60