← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kempter, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 40% | 2.44 |
| Regensburg win | 33% | 2.98 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Paulo Otávio · Ingolstadt |
| 28' | ⚽ | Hamadi Al Ghaddioui · Regensburg |
| 39' | ⚽ | Sonny Kittel · Ingolstadt |
| 42' | 🟨 | Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt |
| 75' | ⚽ | Hamadi Al Ghaddioui · Regensburg |
| 79' | 🟨 | Adrian Fein · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 25 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| coach days | 21.00 | 539.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 1.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1410.85 | 1475.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.70 | -3.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 11.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | -1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.97 | 27.36 |
| state index | -1.15 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | -1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |