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1. FC Köln 2–3 Bochum

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Köln win60%1.60
Draw24%3.98
Bochum win15%6.24

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Lukas Hinterseer · Bochum
16'🟨Lukas Hinterseer · Bochum
19'🟨Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln
24'⚽Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln
32'🟨Marcel Risse · 1. FC Köln
32'🟨Jan Gyamerah · Bochum
55'🟨Anthony Losilla · Bochum
58'⚽Lukas Hinterseer · Bochum
69'⚽Sidney Sam · Bochum
75'🟨Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln
76'⚽Marcel Risse · 1. FC Köln
83'🟨Tim Hoogland · Bochum

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
17Shots9
8On target5
8Corners1
20Fouls19
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric1. FC KölnBochum
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
box share (last 5)0.730.59
cards avg (last 5)1.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRheinEnergieStadion
coach days173.00323.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.290.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.003.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.603.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.606.80
corners volatility (last 10)4.672.39
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.11
dominance (last 5)0.580.60
elo1628.721506.35
elo momentum (last 5)59.11-17.31
eye test v11.670.25
eye trend v10.05-0.00
first sub minute (last 10)62.5065.50
form points (last 5)15.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)3.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)4.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)2.321.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.30
keeper form v10.760.70
league points36.0027.00
league rank2.007.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2078.40
possession avg (last 5)56.4062.60
rest days4.006.00
scorer concentration0.420.30
season ppg2.001.50
shot diff avg (last 5)3.805.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.0016.80
skill v10.991.01
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)7.104.30
sot for avg (last 3)8.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)8.204.60
squad age26.6429.44
state index1.50-0.31
sterile dominance v10.330.52
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.320.29
threat rate (last 5)0.280.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60