← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Timo Gerach, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 39% | 2.48 |
| Darmstadt win | 31% | 3.15 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.22 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Philipp Riese · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 28' | 🟨 | Yannick Stark · Darmstadt |
| 50' | ⚽ | Pascal Testroet · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 56' | 🟨 | Aytaç Sulu · Darmstadt |
| 62' | 🟨 | Serdar Dursun · Darmstadt |
| 64' | ⚽ | Pascal Testroet · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 66' | 🟨 | Malcolm Cacutalua · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 76' | ⚽ | Immanuel Höhn · Darmstadt |
| 78' | ⚽ | Marvin Mehlem · Darmstadt |
| 85' | 🟨 | Martin Männel · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 87' | 🟨 | Fabian Kalig · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 88' | 🟨 | Dennis Kempe · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 19 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| coach days | 563.00 | 380.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1434.09 | 1476.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.62 | -27.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.55 |
| league points | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.86 | 27.78 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |