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SV Sandhausen 2–2 Regensburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen win42%2.30
Regensburg win30%3.25
Draw28%3.46

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg
20'⚽Andrew Wooten · SV Sandhausen
26'🟨Leart Paqarada · SV Sandhausen
39'🟨Marco Grüttner · Regensburg
45'⚽Philipp Förster · SV Sandhausen
70'🟨Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg
90'⚽Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
16Shots6
6On target5
4Corners4
9Fouls15
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenRegensburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.710.54
cards avg (last 5)1.602.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHardtwaldstadion
coach days76.00533.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.07
corner diff avg (last 5)1.202.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.607.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.631.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.11
dominance (last 5)0.550.58
elo1417.051475.54
elo momentum (last 5)-15.67-3.29
eye test v1-0.310.24
eye trend v10.19-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)60.2062.50
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.321.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.700.67
league points12.0025.00
league rank17.009.00
matches since blank3.0012.00
matches since clean sheet3.0011.00
matches since win7.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2065.40
possession avg (last 5)49.8050.60
rest days7.009.00
scorer concentration0.470.33
season ppg0.711.47
shot diff avg (last 5)3.205.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.6020.00
skill v1-0.18-1.14
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.505.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.80
squad age27.6727.25
state index-0.69-0.12
sterile dominance v1-0.30-1.49
threat rate (last 10)0.290.36
threat rate (last 3)0.280.40
threat rate (last 5)0.270.38
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.80