← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lasse Koslowski, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 44% | 2.21 |
| Heidenheim win | 28% | 3.43 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.47 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt |
| 31' | 🟨 | Almog Cohen · Ingolstadt |
| 62' | 🟨 | Robert Leipertz · Ingolstadt |
| 70' | 🟨 | Frederic Ananou · Ingolstadt |
| 76' | ⚽ | Denis Thomalla · Heidenheim |
| 78' | 🟨 | Niklas Dorsch · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| coach days | 15.00 | 4124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1409.34 | 1522.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.74 | 7.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 10.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.59 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.84 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.38 | 27.53 |
| state index | -1.10 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.35 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |