← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 56% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.85 |
| Greuther Furth win | 19% | 5.13 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 12 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 379.00 | 470.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.92 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1519.27 | 1453.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.52 | -44.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 42.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.66 |
| league points | 31.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.01 | 24.73 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |