← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Arne Aarnink, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 50% | 1.92 |
| Dresden win | 25% | 3.86 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.96 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | 🟨 | Christian Strohdiek · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 54' | ⚽ | Ben Zolinski · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jamilu Collins · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 77' | ⚽ | Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Patrick Ebert · Dresden |
| 90' | ⚽ | Philipp Klement · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Benteler-Arena |
| coach days | 623.00 | 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1452.19 | 1461.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.71 | 0.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 22.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.20 | 25.72 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |