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Bochum 1–3 FC St. Pauli 1910

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Mon, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benedikt Kempkes, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win48%2.03
Draw28%3.49
FC St. Pauli 1910 win25%3.94

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Sami Allagui · FC St. Pauli 1910
23'🟨Philipp Ziereis · FC St. Pauli 1910
35'⚽Lukas Hinterseer · Bochum
41'🟨Manuel Riemann · Bochum
42'⚽Henk Veerman · FC St. Pauli 1910
53'🟨Luca Zander · FC St. Pauli 1910
58'🟨Tom Weilandt · Bochum
83'🟨Henk Veerman · FC St. Pauli 1910
86'⚽Mats Møller Dæhli · FC St. Pauli 1910

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
22Shots16
6On target6
7Corners4
11Fouls18
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumFC St. Pauli 1910
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.44
box share (last 5)0.580.70
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days312.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
374.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.424.01
elo1486.291460.56
elo momentum (last 5)13.390.43
eye test v1-0.010.48
eye trend v1-0.26-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)62.3060.00
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.92
keeper form v10.710.82
league points24.0025.00
league rank7.006.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8073.40
possession avg (last 5)61.2048.20
rest days8.299.31
scorer concentration0.320.25
season ppg1.601.67
skill v10.96-0.47
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.40
state index0.17-0.13
sterile dominance v10.96-0.52
threat rate (last 10)0.220.30
threat rate (last 3)0.220.26
threat rate (last 5)0.210.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.20