← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Johann Pfeifer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 38% | 2.52 |
| Dresden win | 35% | 2.79 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.62 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 21' | ⚽ | Mathias Honsak · Holstein Kiel |
| 29' | 🟨 | Jannis Nikolaou · Dresden |
| 53' | 🟨 | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| coach days | 89.00 | 161.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig Stadion |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1473.20 | 1599.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.50 | 27.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 25.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.15 | 26.39 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |