← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alexander Sather, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 36% | 2.67 |
| Ingolstadt win | 35% | 2.79 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.36 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ (pen) | Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt |
| 28' | 🟨 | Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt |
| 48' | 🟨 | Thorsten Röcher · Ingolstadt |
| 53' | 🟨 | Sonny Kittel · Ingolstadt |
| 54' | 🟨 | Johannes Wurtz · Darmstadt |
| 63' | 🟨 | Thorsten Röcher · Ingolstadt |
| 63' | 🟥 | Thorsten Röcher · Ingolstadt |
| 73' | 🟨 | Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt |
| 82' | 🟨 | Robin Krausse · Ingolstadt |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| coach days | 372.00 | 7.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1480.20 | 1405.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.28 | -14.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | — |
| league points | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.97 | 24.88 |
| state index | -0.42 | -1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -1.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |