← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 41% | 2.36 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 30% | 3.18 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.41 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 0 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Greuther Furth | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 463.00 | 555.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1480.51 | 1406.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.54 | -10.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.00 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| league points | 26.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.81 | 27.04 |
| state index | -0.61 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |