← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christof Gunsch, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 47% | 2.08 |
| Regensburg win | 27% | 3.57 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.68 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln |
| 22' | 🟨 | Jannes Horn · 1. FC Köln |
| 28' | 🟨 | Benno Schmitz · 1. FC Köln |
| 32' | 🟨 | Rafael Czichos · 1. FC Köln |
| 41' | ⚽ | Dominick Drexler · 1. FC Köln |
| 55' | ⚽ | Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg |
| 55' | ⚽ | Dominick Drexler · 1. FC Köln |
| 74' | 🟨 | Benedikt Saller · Regensburg |
| 80' | 🟨 | Timo Horn · 1. FC Köln |
| 87' | 🟨 | André Weis · Regensburg |
| 88' | 🟨 | Marco Grüttner · Regensburg |
| 89' | 🟥 | Marcel Correia · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Continental Arena |
| coach days | 524.00 | 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 4.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1487.91 | 1609.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.14 | 28.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | 1.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 2.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| league points | 25.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.31 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.80 |
| squad age | 27.17 | 26.05 |
| state index | 0.05 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.63 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |