← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 56% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.19 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 20% | 4.71 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 281.00 | 615.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1615.02 | 1456.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.32 | -1.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | 1.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 31.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.74 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 24.13 | 25.14 |
| state index | 0.77 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |