⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

1. FC Köln 4–0 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Köln win69%1.39
Draw19%5.13
Greuther Furth win12%7.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Dominick Drexler · 1. FC Köln
42'🟨Maximilian Bauer · Greuther Furth
51'🟨Maximilian Bauer · Greuther Furth
51'🟥Maximilian Bauer · Greuther Furth
52'⚽ (pen)Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln
57'🟨Maximilian Wittek · Greuther Furth
60'⚽Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln
78'⚽Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots7
10On target3
11Corners6
4Fouls11
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric1. FC KölnGreuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.23
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
box share (last 5)0.630.47
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRheinEnergieStadion
2.20
coach days153.00456.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.006.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.40
corners volatility (last 10)4.201.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.18
dominance (last 5)0.540.52
elo1599.261490.83
elo momentum (last 5)19.32-8.76
eye test v10.95-0.20
eye trend v1-0.020.34
first sub minute (last 10)62.2039.40
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)2.251.51
h2 goals (last 10)1.701.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.15
keeper form v10.700.71
league points27.0026.00
league rank4.006.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4070.60
possession avg (last 5)58.0051.60
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.450.35
season ppg1.801.73
shot diff avg (last 5)2.601.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.6014.60
skill v11.12-0.54
sot against avg (last 5)3.407.40
sot for avg (last 10)6.003.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.404.00
squad age26.1025.32
state index0.74-0.26
sterile dominance v10.63-0.56
threat rate (last 10)0.240.30
threat rate (last 3)0.220.32
threat rate (last 5)0.250.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20