← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 48% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.46 |
| Dresden win | 24% | 3.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Ersin Zehir · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 47' | ⚽ | Jeremy Dudziak · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 55' | 🟨 | Dario Đumić · Dresden |
| 86' | ⚽ | Jannik Müller · Dresden |
| 88' | 🟨 | Niklas Kreuzer · Dresden |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jeremy Dudziak · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| coach days | 365.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.77 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1502.85 | 1470.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.22 | 10.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| league points | 27.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.62 | 25.69 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |