← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Reichel, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 52% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.83 |
| Ingolstadt win | 23% | 4.19 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Stefan Kutschke · Ingolstadt |
| 28' | ⚽ | Aaron Hunt · Hamburger SV |
| 34' | 🟨 | Lewis Holtby · Hamburger SV |
| 51' | ⚽ | Hwang Hee-chan · Hamburger SV |
| 54' | ⚽ | Fatih Kaya · Ingolstadt |
| 55' | 🟨 | Almog Cohen · Ingolstadt |
| 63' | 🟨 | Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt |
| 73' | 🟨 | Khaled Narey · Hamburger SV |
| 76' | 🟨 | Vasilije Janjičić · Hamburger SV |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jonatan Kotzke · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sonny Kittel · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| coach days | 0.00 | 275.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1411.90 | 1608.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.66 | 19.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 9.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.22 | 24.55 |
| state index | -0.95 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |