← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Nov 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Thorben Siewer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg win | 44% | 2.18 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 29% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.59 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Pascal Testroet · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 12' | ⚽ | Marco Grüttner · Regensburg |
| 26' | 🟨 | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 36' | 🟨 | Asger Sørensen · Regensburg |
| 39' | 🟨 | Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg |
| 40' | 🟨 | Hamadi Al Ghaddioui · Regensburg |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jan Hochscheidt · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 89' | 🟨 | Malcolm Cacutalua · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 8 |
| 21 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 547.00 | 517.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1406.10 | 1488.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.37 | 11.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.70 |
| league points | 17.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 64.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | -1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.92 | 27.24 |
| state index | -0.52 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -1.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |