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SC Paderborn 07 2–2 Bielefeld

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Nov 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rene Rohde, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win58%1.68
Draw23%4.23
Bielefeld win20%4.92

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07
44'🟨Andreas Voglsammer · Bielefeld
46'⚽Andreas Voglsammer · Bielefeld
51'⚽Sebastian Schonlau · SC Paderborn 07
58'🟨Florian Hartherz · Bielefeld
63'⚽Fabian Klos · Bielefeld
65'🟨Manuel Prietl · Bielefeld
73'🟨Keanu Staude · Bielefeld
75'🟨Bernard Tekpetey · SC Paderborn 07
90'🟨Stefan Ortega · Bielefeld
90'⚽Julius Düker · SC Paderborn 07

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots11
6On target5
4Corners5
20Fouls20
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSC Paderborn 07Bielefeld
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.22
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.17
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.20
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.520.56
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBenteler-Arena
2.00
coach days608.00882.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.05
corner diff avg (last 5)4.001.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.606.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.922.12
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.12
dominance (last 5)0.580.51
elo1459.001434.74
elo momentum (last 5)-1.43-44.72
eye test v10.93-0.51
eye trend v1-0.020.11
first sub minute (last 10)65.8053.90
form points (last 5)5.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.890.79
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.640.64
league points21.0013.00
league rank10.0014.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.0010.00
matches since win0.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0071.00
possession avg (last 5)54.0048.20
rest days5.006.90
scorer concentration0.280.20
season ppg1.400.87
shot diff avg (last 5)5.000.20
shots for avg (last 5)17.4013.80
skill v10.08-0.72
sot against avg (last 5)4.805.00
sot for avg (last 10)7.203.30
sot for avg (last 3)7.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.203.20
squad age25.1626.60
state index-0.05-0.97
sterile dominance v1-0.68-0.83
threat rate (last 10)0.360.27
threat rate (last 3)0.410.32
threat rate (last 5)0.350.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00