← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 39% | 2.49 |
| Ingolstadt win | 32% | 3.07 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟥 | Phil Neumann · Ingolstadt |
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Patrick Ebert · Dresden |
| 16' | ⚽ | Moussa Koné · Dresden |
| 81' | 🟨 | Konstantin Kerschbaumer · Ingolstadt |
| 82' | 🟨 | Niklas Kreuzer · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig Stadion |
| coach days | 75.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1459.68 | 1422.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.48 | -14.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 21.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.24 | 26.75 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |