← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Timo Gerach, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 39% | 2.51 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 34% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.57 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 24 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 4103.00 | 603.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1516.25 | 1432.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.85 | -26.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.60 |
| league points | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.76 | 25.38 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |