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Greuther Furth 3–2 Magdeburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Nov 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth win39%2.52
Magdeburg win32%3.05
Draw30%3.27

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'⚽Daniel Keita-Ruel · Greuther Furth
40'⚽Christian Beck · Magdeburg
45'🟨Sebastian Ernst · Greuther Furth
49'⚽Felix Lohkemper · Magdeburg
71'🟨Maximilian Bauer · Greuther Furth
86'🟨Fabian Reese · Greuther Furth
88'⚽Shawn Parker · Greuther Furth
89'🟨Tobias Mohr · Greuther Furth
90'🟨Björn Rother · Magdeburg
90'⚽Richard Magyar · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots13
6On target9
4Corners8
16Fouls11
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthMagdeburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.220.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.170.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.32
box share (last 5)0.470.45
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days448.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
1606.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.761.97
elo1443.821429.41
elo momentum (last 5)-17.35-52.56
eye test v1-0.45-0.10
eye trend v1-0.17-0.44
first sub minute (last 10)40.4061.30
form points (last 5)5.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.35
keeper form v10.730.56
league points20.009.00
league rank7.0017.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.005.00
matches since win3.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6070.60
possession avg (last 5)51.6052.20
rest days12.2112.21
scorer concentration0.350.43
season ppg1.540.69
skill v1-0.53-0.49
sot against avg (last 5)6.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.60
state index-0.62-1.18
sterile dominance v1-0.51-0.21
threat rate (last 10)0.310.24
threat rate (last 3)0.290.22
threat rate (last 5)0.280.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80