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Ingolstadt 1–1 Bielefeld

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ingolstadt win46%2.11
Bielefeld win27%3.54
Draw27%3.63

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Julian Börner · Bielefeld
41'🟨Manuel Prietl · Bielefeld
55'⚽Almog Cohen · Ingolstadt
68'🟨Jóan Edmundsson · Bielefeld
78'⚽Fabian Klos · Bielefeld

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots15
3On target2
6Corners7
13Fouls15
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricIngolstadtBielefeld
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.570.54
cards avg (last 5)2.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAudi Sportpark
coach days71.00863.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.05
corner diff avg (last 5)0.002.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.007.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.782.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.15
dominance (last 5)0.470.51
elo1423.551458.32
elo momentum (last 5)-25.93-54.36
eye test v1-0.30-0.20
eye trend v10.150.01
first sub minute (last 10)52.4054.20
form points (last 5)3.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.55
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.25
keeper form v10.720.73
league points8.0012.00
league rank19.0014.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet14.007.00
matches since win9.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.4074.40
possession avg (last 5)49.6051.20
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.180.21
season ppg0.621.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.001.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.6014.40
skill v1-0.79-0.17
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.80
squad age26.5126.13
state index-1.11-0.94
sterile dominance v1-0.63-0.44
threat rate (last 10)0.240.29
threat rate (last 3)0.280.30
threat rate (last 5)0.280.30
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.80