← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Schlager, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 54% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
| Greuther Furth win | 20% | 4.73 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | An der Alten Försterei |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 133.00 | 436.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1547.92 | 1496.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.15 | 5.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 41.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| league points | 21.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.51 | 26.06 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |