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Magdeburg 2–3 Regensburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Muller Pascal, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Regensburg win37%2.61
Magdeburg win35%2.81
Draw28%3.43

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Marco Grüttner · Regensburg
4'⚽Christian Beck · Magdeburg
43'🟨Adrian Fein · Regensburg
63'🟨Andreas Geipl · Regensburg
67'⚽Christian Beck · Magdeburg
80'⚽Marcel Correia · Regensburg
90'⚽Hamadi Al Ghaddioui · Regensburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
16Shots18
4On target7
5Corners5
10Fouls18
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMagdeburgRegensburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.39
box share (last 5)0.440.68
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1594.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMDCC-Arena
498.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.042.12
elo1440.061477.54
elo momentum (last 5)-32.0014.80
eye test v1-0.350.51
eye trend v1-0.20-0.33
first sub minute (last 10)62.1058.50
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.60
keeper form v10.560.68
league points9.0017.00
league rank17.0011.00
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet4.006.00
matches since win4.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.2061.80
possession avg (last 5)50.4045.00
rest days8.027.00
scorer concentration0.330.33
season ppg0.751.42
skill v1-0.66-1.89
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.305.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.206.00
state index-0.89-0.05
sterile dominance v1-0.13-1.74
threat rate (last 10)0.240.37
threat rate (last 3)0.210.33
threat rate (last 5)0.220.35
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.60