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1. FC Köln 8–1 Dresden

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sat, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Köln win62%1.56
Draw23%4.12
Dresden win15%6.49

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln
31'🟨Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln
42'⚽Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln
46'⚽Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln
51'⚽Jhon Córdoba · 1. FC Köln
56'⚽Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln
59'🟨Marco Hartmann · Dresden
61'⚽Simon Terodde · 1. FC Köln
72'⚽Barış Atik · Dresden
75'🟨Rafael Czichos · 1. FC Köln
78'⚽Louis Schaub · 1. FC Köln
83'⚽Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln
87'🟨Erich Berko · Dresden
88'🟨Barış Atik · Dresden

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
15Shots9
12On target3
5Corners1
13Fouls20
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric1. FC KölnDresden
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.35
box share (last 5)0.640.43
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days132.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRheinEnergieStadion
60.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.842.78
elo1497.111448.15
elo momentum (last 5)-6.933.89
eye test v10.83-0.50
eye trend v1-0.250.05
first sub minute (last 10)60.5064.00
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.451.35
keeper form v10.650.77
league points21.0018.00
league rank3.009.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8069.80
possession avg (last 5)60.0045.60
rest days4.697.77
scorer concentration0.500.29
season ppg1.751.50
skill v11.09-1.02
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.903.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.003.60
state index-0.25-0.08
sterile dominance v10.60-0.49
threat rate (last 10)0.240.27
threat rate (last 3)0.270.23
threat rate (last 5)0.260.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60