← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Fri, Nov 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lasse Koslowski, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 50% | 1.94 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 26% | 3.72 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Babacar Guèye · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 6' | ⚽ | Kingsley Schindler · Holstein Kiel |
| 9' | ⚽ | Philipp Klement · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 30' | 🟨 | Uwe Hünemeier · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ben Zolinski · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 41' | ⚽ | Ben Zolinski · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 71' | ⚽ | Janni Serra · Holstein Kiel |
| 74' | ⚽ | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 78' | 🟨 | Klaus Gjasula · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Kingsley Schindler · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ben Zolinski · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | On target | 11 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Benteler-Arena |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 587.00 | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1430.80 | 1566.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.90 | 0.25 |
| eye test v1 | 1.02 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.43 | 25.94 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |