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Bielefeld 1–2 FC St. Pauli 1910

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 · Sun, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benedikt Kempkes, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win36%2.67
Bielefeld win34%2.81
Draw29%3.32

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Keanu Staude · Bielefeld
14'🟨Keanu Staude · Bielefeld
49'⚽ (pen)Marvin Knoll · FC St. Pauli 1910
54'🟨Fabian Klos · Bielefeld
55'⚽Mats Møller Dæhli · FC St. Pauli 1910
82'🟨Anderson-Lenda Lucoqui · Bielefeld
90'🟨Mats Møller Dæhli · FC St. Pauli 1910
90'🟨Bernd Nehrig · FC St. Pauli 1910

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots14
5On target8
6Corners3
19Fouls12
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBielefeldFC St. Pauli 1910
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.37
box share (last 5)0.550.67
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days856.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSchüco-Arena
338.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.683.51
elo1434.341450.15
elo momentum (last 5)-34.5923.91
eye test v1-0.140.26
eye trend v1-0.09-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)54.8062.90
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.571.07
keeper form v1—0.67
league points12.0019.00
league rank14.005.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0070.60
possession avg (last 5)52.6041.00
rest days8.067.00
scorer concentration0.230.25
season ppg1.091.73
skill v1-0.01-1.25
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.80
state index-0.790.07
sterile dominance v1-0.20-1.50
threat rate (last 10)0.300.32
threat rate (last 3)0.310.30
threat rate (last 5)0.280.34
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40